DEN

Denver Nuggets

54-28
Sim Win / Proj
57% (119.7)
12:30 PM PT
Implied Edge: Nuggets -2.6 · Proj Total: 236.8
Open Matchup Simulator →
Sim Win / Proj
43% (117.1)

Memphis Grizzlies

25-57
MEM

Pregame 500,000x GPU Monte Carlo Simulation & Matchup Preview

Across 500,000 GPU Monte Carlo simulations, the Denver Nuggets hold a 57% pregame win probability with a projected final score of Nuggets 119.7, Grizzlies 117.1 (projected combined total of 236.8 points and an implied fair spread of Nuggets -2.6). Visiting Denver Nuggets (54-28, 122.1 PPG, 116.9 OPPG, +5.1 net diff) enters this matchup led by Nikola Jokic (27.7 PPG, 12.9 RPG, 10.7 APG), while host Memphis Grizzlies (25-57, 114.7 PPG, 120.7 OPPG, -6.0 net diff) counters with Ty Jerome (19.7 PPG, 2.8 RPG, 5.7 APG). The simulation model weights 97,326 historical NBA box-score rows, starter vs. bench rotation stints, pace-adjusted possession efficiency, and foul-trouble tail risk ahead of tip-off on 2026-01-25 (12:30 PM PT).

Team Profile Record Win Prob Proj Score PPG OPPG Net Diff Home / Road L10 Streak
DEN Denver Nuggets 54-28 57% 119.7 122.1 116.9 +5.1 26-15 (Road) 10-0 W12
MEM Memphis Grizzlies 25-57 43% 117.1 114.7 120.7 -6.0 14-27 (Home) 1-9 L8

DEN Denver Nuggets Projected Rotation & Season Averages

Player POS ROLE GP MPG PPG RPG APG FG% 3P%
Nikola JokicNikola Jokic
 C STARTER 65 34.8 27.7 12.9 10.7 56.9% 38.0%
Jamal MurrayJamal Murray
 G STARTER 75 35.4 25.4 4.4 7.1 48.3% 43.5%
Aaron GordonAaron Gordon
 F STARTER 36 27.9 16.2 5.8 2.7 49.7% 38.9%
Peyton WatsonPeyton Watson
 G STARTER 54 29.6 14.6 4.9 2.1 49.1% 41.1%
Tim Hardaway Jr.Tim Hardaway Jr.
 G ROTATION 80 26.6 13.5 2.6 1.4 44.7% 40.7%
Cameron JohnsonCameron Johnson
 F STARTER 54 30.5 12.2 3.8 2.4 48.0% 43.0%
Christian BraunChristian Braun
 G STARTER 44 31.8 12.0 4.8 2.7 51.9% 30.1%
Jonas ValanciunasJonas Valanciunas
 C BENCH 65 13.4 8.7 5.1 1.2 58.2% 30.8%

MEM Memphis Grizzlies Projected Rotation & Season Averages

Player POS ROLE GP MPG PPG RPG APG FG% 3P%
Ty JeromeTy Jerome
 G STARTER 15 22.7 19.7 2.8 5.7 47.4% 42.0%
Ja MorantJa Morant
 G STARTER 20 28.4 19.4 3.2 8.1 41.0% 23.5%
Jaren Jackson Jr.Jaren Jackson Jr.
 F STARTER 45 30.8 19.2 5.8 1.9 47.5% 35.9%
Dariq WhiteheadDariq Whitehead
 F ROTATION 6 30.5 16.3 4.0 1.5 39.8% 31.7%
Santi AldamaSanti Aldama
 F ROTATION 43 27.8 14.0 6.7 2.9 47.9% 35.0%
Zach EdeyZach Edey
 C STARTER 11 25.8 13.6 11.1 1.1 63.3% 20.0%
Cedric CowardCedric Coward
 F STARTER 62 25.8 13.6 5.9 2.8 47.1% 33.8%
GG JacksonGG Jackson
 F STARTER 54 21.8 12.7 4.4 1.5 49.6% 33.2%