DAL

Dallas Mavericks

26-56
Sim Win / Proj
44% (111.3)
4:00 PM PT
Implied Edge: Bucks -2.1 · Proj Total: 224.7
Open Matchup Simulator →
Sim Win / Proj
56% (113.4)

Milwaukee Bucks

32-50
MIL

Pregame 500,000x GPU Monte Carlo Simulation & Matchup Preview

Across 500,000 GPU Monte Carlo simulations, the Milwaukee Bucks hold a 56% pregame win probability with a projected final score of Mavericks 111.3, Bucks 113.4 (projected combined total of 224.7 points and an implied fair spread of Bucks -2.1). Visiting Dallas Mavericks (26-56, 114.1 PPG, 119.6 OPPG, -5.5 net diff) enters this matchup led by Cooper Flagg (21.0 PPG, 6.7 RPG, 4.5 APG), while host Milwaukee Bucks (32-50, 110.6 PPG, 116.8 OPPG, -6.2 net diff) counters with Giannis Antetokounmpo (27.6 PPG, 9.8 RPG, 5.4 APG). The simulation model weights 97,326 historical NBA box-score rows, starter vs. bench rotation stints, pace-adjusted possession efficiency, and foul-trouble tail risk ahead of tip-off on 2026-01-25 (4:00 PM PT).

Team Profile Record Win Prob Proj Score PPG OPPG Net Diff Home / Road L10 Streak
DAL Dallas Mavericks 26-56 44% 111.3 114.1 119.6 -5.5 10-31 (Road) 3-7 W1
MIL Milwaukee Bucks 32-50 56% 113.4 110.6 116.8 -6.2 19-22 (Home) 3-7 L1

DAL Dallas Mavericks Projected Rotation & Season Averages

Player POS ROLE GP MPG PPG RPG APG FG% 3P%
Cooper FlaggCooper Flagg
 F STARTER 70 33.6 21.0 6.7 4.5 46.8% 29.5%
Anthony DavisAnthony Davis
 F STARTER 20 31.2 20.4 11.1 2.8 50.6% 27.0%
Naji MarshallNaji Marshall
 F STARTER 74 29.5 15.2 4.7 3.3 51.0% 29.1%
P.J. WashingtonP.J. Washington
 F STARTER 56 30.9 14.2 7.0 1.8 45.0% 32.5%
Brandon WilliamsBrandon Williams
 G ROTATION 66 22.2 13.0 2.9 3.9 47.2% 23.2%
Max ChristieMax Christie
 G STARTER 77 29.1 12.3 3.2 2.0 44.1% 40.4%
Klay ThompsonKlay Thompson
 G ROTATION 69 21.7 11.7 2.1 1.4 39.3% 38.3%
Marvin Bagley IIIMarvin Bagley III
 F ROTATION 22 21.4 11.0 6.8 1.3 60.6% 48.5%

MIL Milwaukee Bucks Projected Rotation & Season Averages

Player POS ROLE GP MPG PPG RPG APG FG% 3P%
Giannis AntetokounmpoGiannis Antetokounmpo
 F STARTER 36 28.9 27.6 9.8 5.4 62.4% 33.3%
Kevin Porter Jr.Kevin Porter Jr.
 G STARTER 38 33.2 17.4 5.2 7.4 46.5% 32.2%
Ryan RollinsRyan Rollins
 G STARTER 74 32.1 17.3 4.6 5.6 47.2% 40.6%
Cormac RyanCormac Ryan
 G ROTATION 11 24.5 14.3 2.5 1.7 52.0% 45.8%
Bobby PortisBobby Portis
 F ROTATION 67 24.1 13.7 6.4 1.6 48.8% 45.6%
Kyle KuzmaKyle Kuzma
 F STARTER 69 26.2 13.0 4.5 2.7 49.2% 34.7%
Myles TurnerMyles Turner
 C STARTER 71 26.9 11.9 5.3 1.5 44.0% 38.3%
Ousmane DiengOusmane Dieng
 F STARTER 30 26.9 11.0 4.6 3.6 42.3% 33.1%