MIA

Miami Heat

43-39
Sim Win / Proj
53% (119.1)
5:00 PM PT
Implied Edge: Heat -1.0 · Proj Total: 237.2
Open Matchup Simulator →
Sim Win / Proj
47% (118.1)

Chicago Bulls

31-51
CHI

Pregame 500,000x GPU Monte Carlo Simulation & Matchup Preview

Across 500,000 GPU Monte Carlo simulations, the Miami Heat hold a 53% pregame win probability with a projected final score of Heat 119.1, Bulls 118.1 (projected combined total of 237.2 points and an implied fair spread of Heat -1.0). Visiting Miami Heat (43-39, 120.9 PPG, 118.5 OPPG, +2.3 net diff) enters this matchup led by Norman Powell (21.7 PPG, 3.5 RPG, 2.5 APG), while host Chicago Bulls (31-51, 116.3 PPG, 121.5 OPPG, -5.2 net diff) counters with Coby White (18.6 PPG, 3.7 RPG, 4.7 APG). The simulation model weights 97,326 historical NBA box-score rows, starter vs. bench rotation stints, pace-adjusted possession efficiency, and foul-trouble tail risk ahead of tip-off on 2026-01-08 (5:00 PM PT).

Team Profile Record Win Prob Proj Score PPG OPPG Net Diff Home / Road L10 Streak
MIA Miami Heat 43-39 53% 119.1 120.9 118.5 +2.3 17-24 (Road) 5-5 W2
CHI Chicago Bulls 31-51 47% 118.1 116.3 121.5 -5.2 18-23 (Home) 2-8 L2

MIA Miami Heat Projected Rotation & Season Averages

Player POS ROLE GP MPG PPG RPG APG FG% 3P%
Norman PowellNorman Powell
 G STARTER 58 29.6 21.7 3.5 2.5 47.0% 38.0%
Tyler HerroTyler Herro
 G STARTER 33 31.2 20.5 4.8 4.1 48.0% 37.8%
Bam AdebayoBam Adebayo
 C STARTER 73 32.4 20.1 10.0 3.2 44.2% 31.8%
Andrew WigginsAndrew Wiggins
 F STARTER 68 30.4 15.4 4.8 2.7 47.5% 41.4%
Jaime Jaquez Jr.Jaime Jaquez Jr.
 F ROTATION 75 28.3 15.4 5.0 4.7 50.7% 31.7%
Pelle LarssonPelle Larsson
 G STARTER 70 26.5 11.4 3.5 3.4 49.6% 32.3%
Kel'el WareKel'el Ware
 C ROTATION 77 22.2 11.1 9.0 0.7 53.0% 39.5%
Davion MitchellDavion Mitchell
 G STARTER 70 28.6 9.3 2.7 6.5 49.0% 39.5%

CHI Chicago Bulls Projected Rotation & Season Averages

Player POS ROLE GP MPG PPG RPG APG FG% 3P%
Coby WhiteCoby White
 G STARTER 29 29.1 18.6 3.7 4.7 43.8% 34.6%
Collin SextonCollin Sexton
 G ROTATION 26 26.0 17.5 2.9 2.5 48.2% 41.0%
Josh GiddeyJosh Giddey
 G STARTER 54 32.1 17.0 8.3 9.1 44.8% 36.4%
Nikola VucevicNikola Vucevic
 C STARTER 48 30.9 16.9 9.0 3.8 50.5% 37.6%
Matas BuzelisMatas Buzelis
 F STARTER 77 29.2 16.3 5.8 2.1 46.3% 34.9%
Anfernee SimonsAnfernee Simons
 G STARTER 6 28.3 15.2 2.8 3.0 43.8% 32.0%
Ayo DosunmuAyo Dosunmu
 G ROTATION 45 26.4 15.0 3.0 3.6 51.4% 45.1%
Tre JonesTre Jones
 G STARTER 65 27.0 14.1 3.1 5.4 55.3% 31.5%