GS

Golden State Warriors

37-45
Sim Win / Proj
38% (114.2)
2:30 PM PT
Implied Edge: Timberwolves -4.2 · Proj Total: 232.6
Open Matchup Simulator →
Sim Win / Proj
62% (118.4)

Minnesota Timberwolves

49-33
MIN

Pregame 500,000x GPU Monte Carlo Simulation & Matchup Preview

Across 500,000 GPU Monte Carlo simulations, the Minnesota Timberwolves hold a 62% pregame win probability with a projected final score of Warriors 114.2, Timberwolves 118.4 (projected combined total of 232.6 points and an implied fair spread of Timberwolves -4.2). Visiting Golden State Warriors (37-45, 114.6 PPG, 115.2 OPPG, -0.6 net diff) enters this matchup led by Stephen Curry (26.6 PPG, 3.6 RPG, 4.7 APG), while host Minnesota Timberwolves (49-33, 118.0 PPG, 114.6 OPPG, +3.4 net diff) counters with Anthony Edwards (28.8 PPG, 5.0 RPG, 3.7 APG). The simulation model weights 97,326 historical NBA box-score rows, starter vs. bench rotation stints, pace-adjusted possession efficiency, and foul-trouble tail risk ahead of tip-off on 2026-01-24 (2:30 PM PT).

Team Profile Record Win Prob Proj Score PPG OPPG Net Diff Home / Road L10 Streak
GS Golden State Warriors 37-45 38% 114.2 114.6 115.2 -0.6 15-26 (Road) 3-7 L3
MIN Minnesota Timberwolves 49-33 62% 118.4 118.0 114.6 +3.4 26-15 (Home) 5-5 W2

GS Golden State Warriors Projected Rotation & Season Averages

Player POS ROLE GP MPG PPG RPG APG FG% 3P%
Stephen CurryStephen Curry
 G STARTER 43 31.0 26.6 3.6 4.7 46.8% 39.3%
Jimmy Butler IIIJimmy Butler III
 F STARTER 38 31.2 20.0 5.6 4.9 51.9% 37.6%
Kristaps PorzingisKristaps Porzingis
 C STARTER 15 23.8 16.1 5.3 2.3 43.3% 31.1%
Brandin PodziemskiBrandin Podziemski
 G STARTER 82 28.5 13.8 5.1 3.7 45.5% 37.1%
De'Anthony MeltonDe'Anthony Melton
 G ROTATION 49 23.0 12.3 3.2 2.6 40.7% 29.4%
Moses MoodyMoses Moody
 G STARTER 60 25.7 12.1 3.3 1.6 44.0% 40.1%
Jonathan KumingaJonathan Kuminga
 F STARTER 20 23.9 12.1 5.8 2.5 45.4% 32.1%
Charles BasseyCharles Bassey
 C ROTATION 5 20.2 10.6 7.2 1.0 67.7% 0.0%

MIN Minnesota Timberwolves Projected Rotation & Season Averages

Player POS ROLE GP MPG PPG RPG APG FG% 3P%
Anthony EdwardsAnthony Edwards
 G STARTER 61 35.0 28.8 5.0 3.7 48.9% 39.9%
Julius RandleJulius Randle
 F STARTER 79 33.1 21.1 6.7 5.0 48.1% 31.5%
Jaden McDanielsJaden McDaniels
 F STARTER 73 31.7 14.8 4.2 2.7 51.5% 41.2%
Ayo DosunmuAyo Dosunmu
 G ROTATION 24 28.9 14.4 4.2 3.5 52.1% 41.4%
Naz ReidNaz Reid
 C ROTATION 77 26.1 13.6 6.2 2.2 45.6% 36.2%
Donte DiVincenzoDonte DiVincenzo
 G STARTER 82 30.5 12.2 4.1 3.8 40.6% 37.9%
Rudy GobertRudy Gobert
 C STARTER 76 31.3 10.9 11.5 1.7 68.2% 0.0%
Bones HylandBones Hyland
 G ROTATION 70 16.8 8.6 1.8 2.7 45.3% 38.8%