NBA Player Prop Hit-Rate & Usage Surge Board (2025-26 Regular Season)
Assists Over (AST) · L5 & L10 Over Hit Frequency vs Baseline Half-Point Line · Next-Man-Up Rotation Surge Radar
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ACTIVE MARKET
Assists Over (AST)
Half-point floor baseline
80%+ L10 HIT RATE
129 Props
8/10 or better over rate
ACTIVE 4+ GAME STREAKS
41 Streaks
Consecutive games over line
ROTATION & USAGE SURGES
83 Players
390 qualified rotation players
STARTER PROMOTION
MEM
Rayan Rupert
Memphis Grizzlies · G
L5 MIN (Δ)
35.2 +18.5
Szn 16.8 MPG
L5 PRA (Δ)
30.4 +21.2
Szn 9.2 PRA
TOP PROP L10
PRA O9.5 L5 Surge
L5 17.6 PPG
USAGE EXPANSION
NO
Jeremiah Fears
New Orleans Pelicans · G
L5 MIN (Δ)
39.4 +13.7
Szn 25.7 MPG
L5 PRA (Δ)
43.6 +22.3
Szn 21.3 PRA
TOP PROP L10
PTS O14.5 70% (7/10)
L5 31.8 PPG
STARTER PROMOTION
CHI
Leonard Miller
Chicago Bulls · F
L5 MIN (Δ)
34.2 +18.5
Szn 15.7 MPG
L5 PRA (Δ)
28.6 +15.9
Szn 12.7 PRA
TOP PROP L10
PRA O12.5 L5 Surge
L5 17.6 PPG
STARTER PROMOTION
NO
Micah Peavy
New Orleans Pelicans · G
L5 MIN (Δ)
34.8 +19.8
Szn 15.0 MPG
L5 PRA (Δ)
16.4 +9.2
Szn 7.2 PRA
TOP PROP L10
PRA O7.5 L5 Surge
L5 10.8 PPG
STARTER PROMOTION
MIL
Ousmane Dieng
Milwaukee Bucks · F
L5 MIN (Δ)
33.6 +14.2
Szn 19.4 MPG
L5 PRA (Δ)
26.8 +13.7
Szn 13.1 PRA
TOP PROP L10
PRA O13.5 L5 Surge
L5 13.4 PPG
STARTER PROMOTION
SAC
Nique Clifford
Sacramento Kings · G
L5 MIN (Δ)
38.0 +12.9
Szn 25.1 MPG
L5 PRA (Δ)
30.0 +15.3
Szn 14.7 PRA
TOP PROP L10
PRA O14.5 L5 Surge
L5 19.4 PPG
USAGE EXPANSION
BKN
Tyson Etienne
Brooklyn Nets · G
L5 MIN (Δ)
31.4 +15.6
Szn 15.8 MPG
L5 PRA (Δ)
21.4 +10.7
Szn 10.7 PRA
TOP PROP L10
3PM O1.5 60% (6/10)
L5 15.0 PPG
STARTER PROMOTION
MIL
Jericho Sims
Milwaukee Bucks · C
L5 MIN (Δ)
32.6 +12.6
Szn 20.0 MPG
L5 PRA (Δ)
25.2 +13.0
Szn 12.2 PRA
TOP PROP L10
REB O5.5 70% (7/10)
L5 12.2 PPG
USAGE EXPANSION
UTAH
Cody Williams
Utah Jazz · F
L5 MIN (Δ)
36.2 +11.9
Szn 24.3 MPG
L5 PRA (Δ)
26.4 +12.6
Szn 13.8 PRA
TOP PROP L10
PRA O13.5 L5 Surge
L5 16.4 PPG
USAGE EXPANSION
CHI
Rob Dillingham
Chicago Bulls · G
L5 MIN (Δ)
26.2 +11.3
Szn 14.9 MPG
L5 PRA (Δ)
23.4 +12.9
Szn 10.5 PRA
TOP PROP L10
PRA O10.5 L5 Surge
L5 15.8 PPG
STARTER PROMOTION
SAC
Devin Carter
Sacramento Kings · G
L5 MIN (Δ)
31.6 +13.2
Szn 18.4 MPG
L5 PRA (Δ)
25.4 +10.5
Szn 14.9 PRA
TOP PROP L10
PRA O14.5 L5 Surge
L5 14.6 PPG
USAGE EXPANSION
BKN
Jalen Wilson
Brooklyn Nets · F
L5 MIN (Δ)
28.4 +12.5
Szn 15.9 MPG
L5 PRA (Δ)
20.6 +11.2
Szn 9.4 PRA
TOP PROP L10
PRA O9.5 L5 Surge
L5 11.8 PPG
| # | Player | Team | Prop Line | GPU Sim Proj | Live EV% | L10 Hit% | L5 Hit% | Szn Hit% | Streak | Szn Avg | L10 Avg | L5 Avg | L10 vs Line | Last 5 Games (Most Recent First) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | SAC | O 6.5 AST | 🔒 $1.99 | EV% | 80% (8/10) | 100% (5/5) | 50% (32/64) | 7G OVER | 6.7 | 8.1 | 9.8 | +1.6 |
8
10
10
9
12
|
|
| 2 | GS | O 5.5 AST | 🔒 $1.99 | EV% | 80% (8/10) | 100% (5/5) | 53% (36/68) | 5G OVER | 5.5 | 6.8 | 8.0 | +1.3 |
6
6
7
12
9
|
|
| 3 | HOU | O 4.5 AST | 🔒 $1.99 | EV% | 90% (9/10) | 80% (4/5) | 50% (39/78) | 2G OVER | 4.8 | 7.0 | 5.8 | +2.5 |
7
5
3
8
6
|
|
| 4 | DET | O 3.5 AST | 🔒 $1.99 | EV% | 90% (9/10) | 80% (4/5) | 46% (33/72) | 1G OVER | 3.9 | 6.6 | 6.8 | +3.1 |
4
3
6
7
14
|
|
| 5 | ATL | O 3.5 AST | 🔒 $1.99 | EV% | 80% (8/10) | 80% (4/5) | 53% (40/76) | 4G OVER | 3.9 | 5.1 | 4.8 | +1.6 |
4
4
6
7
3
|
|
| 6 | SA | O 7.5 AST | 🔒 $1.99 | EV% | 80% (8/10) | 80% (4/5) | 49% (34/69) | 3G OVER | 7.4 | 9.4 | 9.4 | +1.9 |
9
13
9
5
11
|
|
| 7 | IND | O 7.5 AST | 🔒 $1.99 | EV% | 60% (6/10) | 80% (4/5) | 46% (26/57) | 4G OVER | 7.7 | 9.1 | 12.0 | +1.6 |
10
10
19
14
7
|
|
| 8 | DAL | O 3.5 AST | 🔒 $1.99 | EV% | 70% (7/10) | 80% (4/5) | 55% (36/66) | 2G OVER | 3.9 | 4.4 | 4.8 | +0.9 |
5
5
2
7
5
|
|
| 9 | CHI | O 9.5 AST | 🔒 $1.99 | EV% | 80% (8/10) | 80% (4/5) | 50% (27/54) | - | 9.1 | 10.6 | 9.6 | +1.1 |
5
10
10
11
12
|
|
| 10 | OKC | O 6.5 AST | 🔒 $1.99 | EV% | 60% (6/10) | 80% (4/5) | 47% (32/68) | 4G OVER | 6.6 | 6.5 | 7.2 | +0.0 |
11
8
7
7
3
|
|
| 11 | ORL | O 5.5 AST | 🔒 $1.99 | EV% | 60% (6/10) | 80% (4/5) | 46% (33/72) | 3G OVER | 5.2 | 5.9 | 6.6 | +0.4 |
11
7
6
3
6
|
|
| 12 | NY | O 6.5 AST | 🔒 $1.99 | EV% | 70% (7/10) | 80% (4/5) | 55% (41/75) | - | 6.8 | 8.0 | 8.6 | +1.5 |
2
10
13
10
8
|
|
| 13 | BKN | O 3.5 AST | 🔒 $1.99 | EV% | 80% (8/10) | 60% (3/5) | 50% (28/56) | - | 3.8 | 4.6 | 3.4 | +1.1 |
0
2
7
4
4
|
|
| 14 | TOR | O 5.5 AST | 🔒 $1.99 | EV% | 70% (7/10) | 40% (2/5) | 50% (40/80) | 1G OVER | 5.9 | 8.7 | 6.4 | +3.2 |
12
5
2
5
8
|
|
| 15 | PHI | O 4.5 AST | 🔒 $1.99 | EV% | 60% (6/10) | 60% (3/5) | 33% (25/75) | 3G OVER | 4.2 | 5.5 | 5.6 | +1.0 |
11
5
8
3
1
|
|
| 16 | IND | O 5.5 AST | 🔒 $1.99 | EV% | 70% (7/10) | 60% (3/5) | 43% (24/56) | 1G OVER | 5.1 | 6.9 | 5.8 | +1.4 |
9
3
3
6
8
|
|
| 17 | BOS | O 5.5 AST | 🔒 $1.99 | EV% | 60% (6/10) | 80% (4/5) | 50% (8/16) | 1G OVER | 5.3 | 6.1 | 7.8 | +0.6 |
8
4
7
9
11
|
|
| 18 | DEN | O 10.5 AST | 🔒 $1.99 | EV% | 70% (7/10) | 60% (3/5) | 52% (34/65) | - | 10.7 | 11.9 | 9.8 | +1.4 |
1
10
13
13
12
|
|
| 19 | LAL | O 7.5 AST | 🔒 $1.99 | EV% | 70% (7/10) | 60% (3/5) | 43% (26/60) | - | 7.2 | 9.1 | 9.2 | +1.6 |
6
12
11
15
2
|
|
| 20 | MEM | O 8.5 AST | 🔒 $1.99 | EV% | 60% (6/10) | 60% (3/5) | 45% (9/20) | 3G OVER | 8.1 | 8.2 | 9.2 | -0.3 |
12
13
11
3
7
|
|
| 21 | PHX | O 6.5 AST | 🔒 $1.99 | EV% | 60% (6/10) | 60% (3/5) | 45% (29/64) | 2G OVER | 6.0 | 6.8 | 6.8 | +0.3 |
9
8
4
6
7
|
|
| 22 | OKC | O 5.5 AST | 🔒 $1.99 | EV% | 50% (5/10) | 80% (4/5) | 52% (17/33) | 3G OVER | 5.5 | 4.9 | 6.2 | -0.6 |
6
7
8
2
8
|
|
| 23 | DAL | O 5.5 AST | 🔒 $1.99 | EV% | 40% (4/10) | 80% (4/5) | 33% (20/60) | 4G OVER | 5.3 | 6.9 | 9.8 | +1.4 |
23
7
7
7
5
|
|
| 24 | HOU | O 5.5 AST | 🔒 $1.99 | EV% | 60% (6/10) | 60% (3/5) | 47% (37/79) | 1G OVER | 5.3 | 6.2 | 6.0 | +0.7 |
7
4
8
7
4
|
|
| 25 | MIN | O 3.5 AST | 🔒 $1.99 | EV% | 60% (6/10) | 40% (2/5) | 48% (33/69) | 1G OVER | 3.6 | 4.8 | 2.8 | +1.3 |
4
1
2
3
4
|
|
| 26 | MEM | O 5.5 AST | 🔒 $1.99 | EV% | 50% (5/10) | 80% (4/5) | 39% (28/72) | 2G OVER | 5.6 | 6.0 | 7.8 | +0.5 |
9
8
5
10
7
|
|
| 27 | UTAH | O 6.5 AST | 🔒 $1.99 | EV% | 60% (6/10) | 40% (2/5) | 55% (6/11) | 2G OVER | 6.7 | 7.0 | 6.6 | +0.5 |
10
8
5
4
6
|
|
| 28 | WSH | O 4.5 AST | 🔒 $1.99 | EV% | 60% (6/10) | 40% (2/5) | 48% (39/82) | 1G OVER | 4.6 | 5.5 | 5.4 | +1.0 |
9
4
4
7
3
|
|
| 29 | DET | O 9.5 AST | 🔒 $1.99 | EV% | 60% (6/10) | 40% (2/5) | 58% (37/64) | 1G OVER | 9.9 | 10.1 | 8.0 | +0.6 |
14
7
10
0
9
|
|
| 30 | UTAH | O 4.5 AST | 🔒 $1.99 | EV% | 60% (6/10) | 40% (2/5) | 46% (19/41) | - | 4.8 | 6.1 | 3.4 | +1.6 |
4
1
6
1
5
|
|
| 31 | SA | O 3.5 AST | 🔒 $1.99 | EV% | 60% (6/10) | 60% (3/5) | 49% (34/70) | - | 3.8 | 3.9 | 3.6 | +0.4 |
1
6
4
4
3
|
|
| 32 | MEM | O 4.5 AST | 🔒 $1.99 | EV% | 60% (6/10) | 60% (3/5) | 38% (26/69) | - | 4.0 | 5.1 | 6.0 | +0.6 |
3
11
4
5
7
|
|
| 33 | CHA | O 7.5 AST | 🔒 $1.99 | EV% | 60% (6/10) | 60% (3/5) | 46% (33/72) | - | 7.1 | 7.4 | 7.4 | -0.1 |
6
8
6
8
9
|
|
| 34 | SAC | O 4.5 AST | 🔒 $1.99 | EV% | 60% (6/10) | 40% (2/5) | 44% (34/77) | - | 4.1 | 5.3 | 4.6 | +0.8 |
0
5
4
3
11
|
|
| 35 | POR | O 6.5 AST | 🔒 $1.99 | EV% | 50% (5/10) | 60% (3/5) | 53% (35/66) | 1G OVER | 6.7 | 6.3 | 7.0 | -0.2 |
10
5
6
7
7
|
|
| 36 | MEM | O 3.5 AST | 🔒 $1.99 | EV% | 50% (5/10) | 80% (4/5) | 50% (20/40) | - | 3.8 | 3.3 | 3.6 | -0.2 |
1
4
4
4
5
|
|
| 37 | GS | O 4.5 AST | 🔒 $1.99 | EV% | 50% (5/10) | 60% (3/5) | 53% (20/38) | - | 4.9 | 4.8 | 5.0 | +0.3 |
4
4
5
6
6
|
|
| 38 | ATL | O 5.5 AST | 🔒 $1.99 | EV% | 40% (4/10) | 60% (3/5) | 53% (40/76) | 2G OVER | 5.9 | 5.5 | 6.2 | +0.0 |
12
6
3
6
4
|
|
| 39 | MIN | O 3.5 AST | 🔒 $1.99 | EV% | 50% (5/10) | 60% (3/5) | 51% (31/61) | - | 3.7 | 3.6 | 4.0 | +0.1 |
3
3
4
5
5
|
|
| 40 | CLE | O 3.5 AST | 🔒 $1.99 | EV% | 50% (5/10) | 60% (3/5) | 52% (34/65) | - | 3.6 | 3.6 | 3.4 | +0.1 |
1
3
4
5
4
|
|
| 41 | NO | O 3.5 AST | 🔒 $1.99 | EV% | 40% (4/10) | 60% (3/5) | 49% (40/81) | 3G OVER | 3.7 | 3.1 | 3.6 | -0.4 |
4
4
7
1
2
|
|
| 42 | TOR | O 3.5 AST | 🔒 $1.99 | EV% | 50% (5/10) | 60% (3/5) | 55% (42/77) | - | 3.7 | 3.4 | 4.4 | -0.1 |
2
6
7
3
4
|
|
| 43 | MEM | O 5.5 AST | 🔒 $1.99 | EV% | 50% (5/10) | 60% (3/5) | 60% (9/15) | - | 5.7 | 5.6 | 6.2 | +0.1 |
4
7
9
3
8
|
|
| 44 | PHI | O 3.5 AST | 🔒 $1.99 | EV% | 50% (5/10) | 40% (2/5) | 50% (19/38) | - | 3.9 | 4.2 | 4.0 | +0.7 |
1
7
3
2
7
|
|
| 45 | SAC | O 4.5 AST | 🔒 $1.99 | EV% | 50% (5/10) | 60% (3/5) | 42% (8/19) | - | 4.1 | 4.5 | 5.4 | +0.0 |
3
3
7
8
6
|
|
| 46 | MIL | O 5.5 AST | 🔒 $1.99 | EV% | 50% (5/10) | 40% (2/5) | 46% (34/74) | 1G OVER | 5.6 | 5.6 | 5.2 | +0.1 |
6
3
9
4
4
|
|
| 47 | TOR | O 5.5 AST | 🔒 $1.99 | EV% | 60% (6/10) | 20% (1/5) | 38% (31/82) | - | 5.4 | 6.8 | 5.0 | +1.3 |
4
2
3
11
5
|
|
| 48 | ORL | O 5.5 AST | 🔒 $1.99 | EV% | 50% (5/10) | 40% (2/5) | 46% (26/57) | - | 5.5 | 6.5 | 6.2 | +1.0 |
3
4
4
12
8
|
|
| 49 | HOU | O 6.5 AST | 🔒 $1.99 | EV% | 50% (5/10) | 40% (2/5) | 44% (32/72) | 1G OVER | 6.2 | 6.1 | 6.0 | -0.4 |
8
4
6
7
5
|
|
| 50 | MIA | O 4.5 AST | 🔒 $1.99 | EV% | 40% (4/10) | 60% (3/5) | 39% (13/33) | 1G OVER | 4.1 | 4.7 | 5.6 | +0.2 |
8
4
6
7
3
|
|
| 51 | SAC | O 3.5 AST | 🔒 $1.99 | EV% | 50% (5/10) | 60% (3/5) | 48% (11/23) | - | 3.5 | 3.4 | 3.6 | -0.1 |
3
2
4
4
5
|
|
| 52 | NO | O 3.5 AST | 🔒 $1.99 | EV% | 50% (5/10) | 20% (1/5) | 59% (39/66) | 1G OVER | 3.8 | 3.6 | 2.0 | +0.1 |
4
2
2
0
2
|
|
| 53 | BOS | O 5.5 AST | 🔒 $1.99 | EV% | 40% (4/10) | 60% (3/5) | 43% (34/79) | 2G OVER | 5.2 | 4.3 | 5.6 | -1.2 |
10
6
3
3
6
|
|
| 54 | MIL | O 5.5 AST | 🔒 $1.99 | EV% | 50% (5/10) | 40% (2/5) | 42% (15/36) | 1G OVER | 5.4 | 4.9 | 5.2 | -0.6 |
8
3
3
8
4
|
|
| 55 | MEM | O 4.5 AST | 🔒 $1.99 | EV% | 50% (5/10) | 40% (2/5) | 50% (5/10) | - | 4.7 | 4.7 | 4.0 | +0.2 |
3
5
5
3
4
|
|
| 56 | PHI | O 3.5 AST | 🔒 $1.99 | EV% | 50% (5/10) | 40% (2/5) | 51% (19/37) | - | 3.6 | 3.3 | 2.6 | -0.2 |
2
2
1
4
4
|
|
| 57 | MIA | O 4.5 AST | 🔒 $1.99 | EV% | 40% (4/10) | 40% (2/5) | 51% (38/75) | 2G OVER | 4.7 | 4.1 | 4.8 | -0.4 |
5
8
4
3
4
|
|
| 58 | UTAH | O 4.5 AST | 🔒 $1.99 | EV% | 40% (4/10) | 40% (2/5) | 40% (6/15) | 2G OVER | 4.1 | 4.1 | 5.4 | -0.4 |
9
11
3
2
2
|
|
| 59 | LAC | O 3.5 AST | 🔒 $1.99 | EV% | 50% (5/10) | 40% (2/5) | 48% (39/82) | - | 3.6 | 3.3 | 3.4 | -0.2 |
3
1
6
3
4
|
|
| 60 | CHI | O 5.5 AST | 🔒 $1.99 | EV% | 50% (5/10) | 40% (2/5) | 42% (27/65) | - | 5.4 | 5.1 | 4.8 | -0.4 |
2
4
3
9
6
|
